Vietnam Real Estate: Prices Anchored High, Liquidity Sorts the Field

The residential real estate market moved through H1 2026 with two contrasting colors: new supply recovered notably (Ho Chi Minh City logged 6,573 newly launched apartments in Q2, up 20% year-on-year), but buying power cooled as effective lending rates stayed anchored around 13–14%/year after the promotional-rate period ended. Average absorption at primary projects in H1 was only about 50–60%, down sharply from over 80% in 2025, even as Hanoi primary prices set a new benchmark — around VND 95 million/sqm, up 21% year-on-year.

1,463 real estate businesses dissolved in the first six months of the year, up 120% year-on-year — mostly smaller players with incomplete legal standing. This is viewed as a sorting and competitive-restructuring phase rather than a broad crisis, as developers with clean land banks and full legal status still posted solid sales.

2026 is a pivotal year institutionally: the new land price table under the 2024 Land Law (effective January 1, 2026) follows market-price principles, sharply raising compensation costs and total project investment; the revised Construction Law (effective July 1, 2026) expands the list of projects exempt from permits, benefiting social and affordable housing. The SBV is keeping real estate credit steady at around 24–25% of total outstanding loans, while exempting social housing, industrial parks and large-scale infrastructure projects from credit-room limits.

The three brightest segments for H2: social housing (preferential lending rates of 5.6–7.5%/year, a VND 145 trillion credit package); industrial real estate — a direct beneficiary of registered FDI up 61% YoY to $34.65 billion, with industrial park occupancy holding at 85–90%; and commercial housing developers with clean land banks and complete legal status.

Real estate stock valuations are diverging sharply by P/B: VHM trades around 2.2x — well above the sector average of 1.3x and already pricing in much of its growth outlook; NLG sits near the bottom of its valuation range (~1.05x) despite record pre-sales; KDH trades near the sector average on its clean Ho Chi Minh City land bank; DXG trades at a meaningful discount to its historical valuation. A selective, company-by-company strategy — favoring valuations that don't yet fully reflect asset quality (NLG, KDH, DXG) — fits a market backdrop that remains deeply divided.

Sources: State Bank of Vietnam, Ministry of Construction, CBRE, VARS, SSI Research, ACBS, MBS, Vietcap (July 2026). For reference only; not personalized investment advice.