Vietnam Securities Sector: Record Liquidity Ahead of the FTSE Upgrade

The VN-Index rose about 2.2% in H1 2026, but the real bright spot is liquidity: average daily trading value (ADTV) in Q1 2026 hit around VND 35 trillion, up nearly 93% year-on-year, driven by market-upgrade expectations and a low interest-rate environment. VNDirect forecasts H2 ADTV holding around VND 34 trillion/session, further supported by a returning IPO wave and the KRX trading system running smoothly.

On April 8, 2026, FTSE Russell officially confirmed Vietnam's upgrade path to Secondary Emerging Market status; Vietnamese stocks formally enter the index from September 21, 2026, phased in across four tranches through the end of September 2027. Estimated foreign inflows total $3–6 billion. Meanwhile, MSCI still classifies Vietnam as a frontier market, though assessed as close to meeting 17 of 18 criteria — the remaining hurdle is mainly foreign-exchange market liberalization, with an official upgrade possible as early as 2027.

Securities firms now split into two camps: scale leaders (TCBS, SSI, VPBankS) with large equity bases and parent-bank ecosystems; and efficient specialists (Vietcap, VIX) with an investment-banking edge. As of end-Q1 2026, total market-wide margin lending balance reached about VND 405 trillion — an all-time high, up 51% year-on-year; five firms topped $1 billion in margin balances: TCBS, SSI, VPBankS, VPS and HSC.

On valuation, the securities sector's average P/B stands at about 1.75x, below its 5-year average (~1.90x). Several sector leaders with impressive profit growth — SSI, VCI, SHS — are trading below their 5-year average valuation, suggesting significant re-rating room remains. A returning H2 2026 IPO wave (LPBS, HDS, Kafi expected to list) and Circular 102/2025/TT-BTC on financial safety ratios are expected to push securities firms to keep raising capital.

The biggest challenge is the trade-off between USD/VND stability and economic growth targets — interest rates may stay under upward pressure. Many institutions recommend a "defend and counter" strategy for H2: guarding against liquidity and FX risk while rotating into stocks that benefit directly from the upgrade and foreign inflows, such as TCBS, SSI, VPBankS, Vietcap, HSC and VPS.

Sources: VNDirect, VNEconomy, Government News, Nhan Dan, VietnamPlus, CafeF, Vietstock, TheLEADER (July 2026). For reference only; not personalized investment advice.