PNJ After the P-Lab Incident: Reading Foreign Fund Flows

Investigators have charged and detained the former director of PNJ's gem-testing subsidiary (P-Lab) in a case involving the cross-border smuggling of more than 28,000 diamonds. The news triggered heavy selling in PNJ shares, with over 10 million shares hitting the floor price in a single session at one point; market cap shed roughly VND 4,350–6,300 billion depending on when measured in the first week of July, with the share price briefly bottoming at VND 50,800.

A key business risk: diamond-related products make up about 33% of PNJ's jewelry-segment revenue (10% loose diamonds, 23% diamond jewelry). That's why SSI cut its 2026 after-tax profit forecast to VND 3,333 billion, down from VND 3,569 billion previously, while reviewing its investment rating. Foreign investors also net-sold nearly 800,000 PNJ shares immediately after the incident.

The company maintains that operations remain normal and has kept its shareholder-approved 2026 revenue and profit targets unchanged. To reassure the market, PNJ announced a share buyback plan, while relatives of Chairwoman Cao Thi Ngoc Dung registered to buy 300,000 shares.

On valuation, PNJ is now the cheapest among leading retailers: P/E of 7.2x and P/B of 1.81x, well below MWG (14.3x / 4.10x), DGW (14.3x / 2.53x) and FRT (22.2x / 4.54x).

That said, the low valuation carries unresolved event risk — the investigation outcome and consumer reaction are still unfolding — and doesn't necessarily mean "safely attractive." A localized governance/legal incident at a gem-testing subsidiary can spill over into a valuation risk for the entire listed group if it dents consumer trust — arguably an Achilles' heel for brand-driven retail categories like jewelry. Investors should watch the investigation closely before deciding.

Sources: CafeF, Kenh14, An Ninh Thu Do, VietBao, 24h.com.vn, SSI Research (July 2026). For reference only; not personalized investment advice.